Abstract
In making the decision-making of crisis management for the volcanic eruption, one of the most difficult aspects is the interpretation of the volcano observation data. Depending on the volcano observation data and, if it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the risk of volcanic eruptions, it is an important information for supporting crisis management decisions during volcanic eruptions.
In the present study, it was quantitatively evaluated by the eruption probability the risk of volcanic eruption. Specifically, targeting the 2014 crisis of Ontake, the data of the number of occurrences of volcanic earthquakes and volcanic tremors were used, it was estimated the eruption probability by Bayesian estimation, and quantitatively the risk of volcanic eruption was evaluated.
