Abstract
In this paper propose, a methodology to identify the Markovian transition probability matrix, which is presented to forecast the degradation process of cold region tunnel lining for performance based design. Reliability, effect of rehabilitation, and steady state probability of tunnel linings, can be evaluated by this process. The degradation states of the tunnel linings are categorized into several ranks, and their degradation processes are characterized by the tunnel management system. The Markovian transition probability matrix of the degradation states which are defined for fix intervals between the inspection points in time. And, Markovian transition probability matrix have to carry out conversion to a discrete value from a continuation value of tunnel lining degradation. The applicability of the identification methodology is investigated by the inspection data set of tunnel linings in Hokkaido.
