7　JIT Modelingを用いた平均日射量値のより細かい時間粒度への按分手法の検討

抄録

The use of solar radiation forecast information is essential for the operation of PV systems. Currently, three-hourly averages of solar radiation predictions are available from the Japan Meteorological Agency's MEPS (Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System). For more detailed energy management, one-hour values with finer temporal granularity are effective.

In this paper, we propose a new method to estimate one-hour values from three-hour MEPS averages by machine learning based on JIT Modeling. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing it with a simplified method that uses the prorated amount of exoatmospheric solar radiation.