2　Foreseeing of Large Forecast Error of Solar Irradiance by using Variation of Forecast Values of Multiple Models with Different Combinations of Physical Schemes

- Comparison between WRF Ver.3 and Ver.4 -

Abstract

We have developed a model to foresee a large error in irradiance forecast by analyzing the variation of weather parameter values forecasted with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Ver. 3, in which the different combinations of physical schemes are used. This paper evaluates the improvement of foreseeing accuracy of large forecast error by using WRF Ver. 4. In addition, this paper discusses the effect of supplementary using Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for the performance improvement.