Pandemic Fatigue in Japan: A panel data analysis of factors that affect human mobility during the seven waves of the COVID-19 pandemic

抄録

This study aims to elucidate factors that affect mobility change throughout the seven waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan. Specifically, it examines the impact of policy interventions and COVID-19 case numbers on mobility patterns. The study focuses on the effects of the Emergency State Declaration (ESD), the “Pre-emergency measures”, and the “Go To Travel” campaign as significant policy factors. Additionally, it explores how vaccination rates influence mobility changes. The author utilized daily data spanning from March 18, 2020, to October 15, 2022, across 47 Japanese prefectures and employed a Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) model to analyze the panel data for each wave of the pandemic. Three principal findings emerge from this analysis: First, the positive COVID-19 cases negatively influences mobility, and this effect diminishes as the pandemic persists. Second, both the ESD and the “Pre-emergency measures” effectively reduced mobility, whereas the “Go To Travel” campaign significantly promoted mobility. Third, increases in the vaccination rate correlates positively with mobility increases. With previous studies emphasize the importance of restricting mobility to mitigate the pandemic spread, this study presents a contrasting perspective, highlighting that people's behaviors are inherently influenced by the pandemic situation. This interplay between the pandemic and human mobility should be conceptualized as a dynamic, interactive process.