Parameter Estimation for Small Diffusion SEIR Model

Abstract

Abstract. The SIR and SEIR models, which are expressed by the differential equation, describe the short time epidemic of infectious diseases deterministically. However, in real, the pattern of the infection spread is unintentionally, therefore we need to consider the random fluctuation to catch the dynamics of populations. In this paper, we proposed the small diffusion SEIR model and derive the asymptotic distribution of estimators. We simulate in software R to demonstrate our theory.