二段階曲線と修正ゴンペルツ曲線について

抄録

In general, the cumulative curves of the bugs agree with Gompertz curve or Logistic curve in many software developments. Using these curves, we will be able to forcast the total number of the bugs when we estimate them within the certain interval. But many experiments show us that those estimates do not coincide with the actual number of bugs. In our experimental data, the se curves usually have more than two steps(a step means an interval or a point where the socond derivative is zero in terms of a continuous function), In this paper, we will study the following four problems ; ・to give the analogy for debugging processes and to find several reasons why such curves appear by means of Gray box method. ・to define a continuous function which is called a modified Gompertz curve that can be expressed by more than two steps. ・to fit the modified Gompertz curve for such a cumulative curve which has more than two steps. ・to forcast total number of bugs on the first step by fitting the modefied Gompertz curve.