証拠理論を応用した設計仮説の確信度評価法の提案

抄録

The design of new artefacts is based on hypotheses whose truth or falsity is uncertain (design hypotheses), and uncertainty is a factor in the risk of design rework. One type of information that can be used to evaluate such uncertainty is the degree of certainty of the design hypothesis, and a method to quantify this is expected. The degree of certainty is considered to be determined under complex factors such as prior knowledge, but it is not easy to take all of these complex factors into account. In order to solve this problem, this paper reports the results of the construction of a systematic method for evaluating the certainty of design hypotheses by taking into account composite factors through the application of evidence theory, and the consideration of the effectiveness and usefulness of the method.