A222 大型ガスタービンの高温部品の信頼性評価手法について(OS2 保全・設備診断技術(4))

抄録

This paper describes an improvement of a method applied for evaluating reliability of hot gas path parts of large industrial gas turbine based on the field experiences obtained from long term commercial operations. The results of statistical analysis using the information provide better knowledge about gaps between design analysis, development tests, verification, and actual conditions after long term use. The knowledge shall be feedback to continuous activities to establish efficient corrective actions for reliability enhancement. Required improvement points for current method are summarized and Bayesian estimation is evaluated as a countermeasure and confirmed to be effective for improvements.