1C32 A Prediction Method of Urban Railway Station Demand based on Quantitatively Defined Station Catchment Areas and Possibility of its Enhancement(Traffic Planning)

抄録

In large urban areas, such as Tokyo metropolitan area, multiple railways compete with each other in a densely developed railway network. Given the proximity among lines and stations, catchment area of stations can easily be overlapped. This means that it is difficult to identify station catchment areas quantitatively which usually play an important role in developing station-based passenger demand forecasting models with adequate accuracy. In order to overcome the abovementioned issue, the SCAD model to specify quantitatively station catchment areas has been developed. The station demand forecasting model with SCAD model can predict the future volume of station users changing in accordance with the progress of urban renovation projects within the target station's catchment area in a relatively short term. The method was then applied to several stations in the central district of an urban area in Japan to demonstrate prediction of station uses volumes. Combination of the developed model, passenger flow survey data and passenger flow simulation system can be applied for considering which kind of countermeasures is appropriate, when these should be implemented. Additionally, this paper also discusses the direction of improving SCAD model in a near future.