SCGE 分析によるリニア中央新幹線建設の経済効果

抄録

Linear Chuo Shinkansen is expected to bring an economic impact on areas along the line as well as all over Japan.This study applies spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model for the quantitative estimate of an economic effect created by the construction of Linear Chuo Shinkansen, and examines its impact on local communities. Linear Chuo Shinkansen provides fast connections between regions and creates a large metropolitan area. An economic impact of ¥300 billion is expected in the inaugural year (2027) when Tokyo-Nagoya stretch opens, ¥590 billion by the time Tokyo-Osaka stretch opens (2045), and ¥12.7 trillion by the 50^th anniversary of the opening of the entire route. Tokyo is estimated to benefit most, far exceeding other areas along the Linear Chuo Shinkansen route, leading to further agglomeration of economic and business functions as well as cultural activities in Tokyo. Issues of Linear Shinkansen trackside areas, the social environment development that takes advantage of regional characteristics, is how to achieve.