計算機シミュレーションによる耐疲労最適保守方策の解析への確率場を用いた新しい確率モデルの適用

抄録

This study investigates optimal maintenance analysis against fatigue failure based upon computer simulation approach with a new probabilistic model using a random field. Probabilistic models reported so far often face difficulties in accurately representing the variability in fatigue crack growth resistance and encounter computational problems in analytical approaches. Our model, having been introduced in earlier works, addresses these issues by generating fatigue crack growth samples through computer simulations, thereby facilitating practical applications to practical maintenance problems.In this paper, this model is applied to derive and analyze history-independent optimal maintenance strategies, focusing on three key factors: material inhomogeneity, crack detection variability in inspections, and uncertainty on initial crack lengths in virgin components. Numerical examples demonstrate that (i) the inspection time interval gradually decreases as the number of inspections increases as well as having been qualitatively pointed out and (ii) the proposed method using the new probabilistic model can derive optimal maintenance strategies even under increased model complexity and uncertain factors.