Abstract
We describe a prediction system for solar radiation using simplified fuzzy reasoning based on weather forecasts and the mesoscale spectral model grid point value (MSM-GPV). The proposed prediction system has a multistage-type structure that consists of two parts: a function approximation part using a normal distribution function and a correction part using the simplified fuzzy reasoning. The output of the prediction system is hourly averages of predicted solar radiation from 6:00 to 18:00. Using solar radiation data acquired in the past, a self-tuning algorithm tunes fuzzy correction rules so that the prediction error is decreased. Several simulation results confirm the usefulness of the proposed prediction system.
