技術予測のメソドロジー : 国家の科学技術政策におけるコンセンサス形成ツールとして(<特集>研究・技術計画/政策科学のメソドロジー)

抄録

Technology foresight has been practiced in various levels including enterprises, industrial organizations, scientific associations, local authorities, government agencies, states, and even on an international level. It varies in time scale from near to far future, as well as in participants, processes and techniques according to different purposes. Technology foresight in Japan has been applied to prioritizing R&D investments in Science and Technology Basic Plan. Foresight methodologies have evolved reflecting changes in social and economic circumstances of science and technology, including the recent global trend to emphasis on innovation which demands outcomeoriented science and technology policy. Each methodology has its own merits and demerits; the fittest for the purpose of a study must be chosen. Sometimes more than one methodology is combined in a complementary manner, as in the eighth Technology Foresight Survey, which comprised socio-economic needs analysis (vision of society in future and its needs by nonscientists), study on rapidly developing research areas (based on bibliometric analysis), and scenario analysis of major areas in science and technology by outstanding individuals, in addition to the standard Delphi survey. This was the first attempt of comprehensive foresight on a national level based on a combination of various methodologies. Science and technology foresight should evolve to cope with the everchanging environment as an important tool of policymaking.