未来予測から見たイノベーションの新展開

抄録

An effective innovation policy is discussed using the method of future forecasting. The method used is characterized by integrating linear and nonlinear predictions and evaluating the impact. From the result and process, the factors which work on the future of Japanese enterprises were found, and the direction of the innovation promotion policy was extracted.

From a long-term perspective, changes in society and industry are accelerating, and in the next decade, a wave of innovation is expected to emerge more than ever before. Japan and Japanese companies are losing their competitiveness in innovation-creating formations. One of the fundamental factors behind this seems to be the inability to make appropriate use of future forecasts. This paper presents a tentative proposal for a policy of high importance that Japan should address. We also consider the impact on innovation of COVID-19 that are expected to have an impact on the future.