A Study of the Evolution of “Moore’s law”

Abstract

Moore's Law is a rule of thumb that has guided "The transistor density doubles every 18 months." and semiconductor evolution. Semiconductors developed in accordance with this law have made it possible to miniaturize and enhance the performance of various devices. More importantly, the law incorporates an economic indicator of the "constant cost per unit area" of a chip, doubling its cost performance every 18 months. The impact of this change has affected not only industrial equipment but also consumer equipment, and the electronics industry has been able to develop together with semiconductors. Recently, however, miniaturization has made it difficult to continue Moore's Law, and we are about to enter a turning point that requires direction for the next evolution.

This paper examines how Moore's Law has continued for half a century, both technologically and economically, in order to gain insights into new evolutionary directions.