A New Statistical Survey Is Necessary for Compiling Data on Technology Trade Balance : In Order to Measure the Real Level of Japan's Technology

Abstract

The most important statistical indicator of the level of a nation's technology is perhaps the one related to technology trade balance. By comparing the payment for technology imports with the receipts from technology exports, it is possible calculate the level to which a nation's technology has developed. In Japan, two organizations conduct surveys on technology trade balance and compile and publish indicators every year based on these surveys. However, the figures released by the two differ widely. What is more, the difference is widening each year. The two organizations are the Bank of Japan, which has been doing the survey for many years, and the Statistics Bureau of the Management and Coordination Agency, which started its survey in 1971. Measurement of Japan's technology level is not the main purpose of the surveys conducted by these organizations. The data produced is only incidental to the main purpose of the survey; it is, so to speak, merely a "by-product". Even so, these are very important indicators because they are the only ones available ad also because they are cited in the Science and Technology White Paper published by the government every year. They are so important that a statistical research project aimed mainly at obtaining their values, not one which produces them as by-products, should be conducted. There is another aspect to this problem. For the reasons listed below, we are now at a time when it is necessary to get a clear grasp of the situation. According to the results of the survey by the Statistics Bureau of the Management and Coordination Agency, the index (which is represented as receipts from technology exports/payment for technology imports × 100) reached 100 (%) in 1989. Supposing that this value is a correct indication of the level of Japan's technology, it means that Japan has reached a critical turning point in its 120-odd-year history of technology and industry since the Meiji ear started (in 1868). This is not bad news but good news. However, the Bank of Japan's figure for this index in 1989 is about a third of that of the Management and Coordination Agency. According to the Bank of Japan statistics, the absolute value of technology imports has increased very sharply since 1979. This value (result of a statistical survey) leaves some doubt as to its validity when it is compared with other data. At the present stage, neither the Statistics Bureau's nor the Bank of Japan's survey produces convincing data indicating the level of Japanese technology. In this paper, the author analyzes the characteristics of the statistics of both organizations and discusses their respective merits and demerits. The author then presents arguments to show why a new statistical survey aimed primarily at measuring the level of a nation's technology is necessary.