抄録
The R&D Department of Sumitomo Denko corporation has developed and introduced quantitative estimation methods for research projects. To estimate research projects which have reached the developed state, the R&D department tried to develop quantitative estimation methods. In 1973 they developed the Profitability-method. In 1983 they developed the New Score-method. In 1991 they introduced the Decision Management method from the American corporation SDG. The Profitability-method was developed to judge which research projects have to be invested in. of course corporate resources are limited so all projects can not be invested in. Therefore, they must be judged whether to go or not. The Profitability-method calculates the project's profit and loss by variables such as the number of researchers and staff, investment, cost of materials, revenue, and so on. The New score-method was developed to judge the priority of research projects. The Main variables are the project's influence, growth probability, realizability, and efficiency of R&D. And each variable has 5 points, so 20 points is the highest possible mark. The Decision Management-method was introduced by the American company SDG in 1991. This DM method has more of an analytical approach than the profitable-method and New score-method. The DM method can clarify the uncertain points of each project y identifying the promotive opinions and objections for a project. They estimate that the most optimistic case and most pessimistic case about the uncertain points. They also describe the decision tree using these alternatives. It is very important to simplify the variables of the estimation model in developing the quantitative estimation method because the variables are so complicated the estimation method is not feasible.
