An urban economic analysis for assessing the long-term impact of transportation development: Changes in the spatial distribution of economic activity due to increased flood risk

Abstract

This study develops an urban economic analysis method that can measure changes in the spatial distribution of economic activity due to increased risk of flooding, which contributes to the assessment of the long-term impact of transportation infrastructure development. For this purpose, we construct a model that can take into account the risk of flooding, based on the models of previous studies that consider agglomeration economies. It is shown that the model has a potential function that enables large-scale numerical calculations. In addition, we present a systematic parameter setting method that enables analysis in real space. Furthermore, we conduct a counterfactual experiment on the increased risk of flooding in the Kanazawa urban employment zone. We confirm that the results reflect the characteristics of the model and that it is possible to measure the long-term impact of transportation infrastructure development. We also discuss measures to reduce flood damage based on the changes in the flooded area population.