Dynamic Discrete Choice Model Considering Survival of Uncertain Alternatives

Abstract

Uncertainty of emergency situations such as disasters result in very different behaviors of evacuees from that of ordinary situations. The decision process follows a different structure, and even the choice set of each decision maker may change drastically. The uncertainty in future choice set also plays a major role in making the series of decisions, but past literatures overlook the effect of assessing choice set on preference. In this research, we constructed a dynamic discrete choice model that expresses dynamic and probabilistic change of choice set. At the choice stage, each decision maker chooses his/her next choice from a non-compensatory choice set. Since choice set of the uncertain future cannot be determined at the choice stage, a probabilistic and compensatory structure is implemented using the survival probability of alternatives. Our proposed model is applied to empirical data of location choice during a heavy disaster, which proved the validity of the model.