抄録
An impact analysis on waterborne diseases in several types of future world was carried out considering global warming. Diarrhea, which is strongly affected by water supply and sanitation, was selected as an indicator of health impact. In order to estimate diarrheal incidence, water supply coverage, sanitation coverage, annual average temperature, and per capita GDP data were subjected to multiple regression analysis. Water supply coverage and annual average temperature were selected as independent variables. Four SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) developed by IPCC were used to estimate water supply coverage, annual average temperature, and diarrheal incidence per capita in 2025 and 2055. The estimation results indicate large differences in future diarrheal incidence among regions not only because of the present temperature and water supply coverage but their future changes as well. A comparison of the results for the four scenarios shows the importance of high environmental consciousness as well as rapid economic growth in reducing diarrheal incidence. Moreover, the results indicate that it is necessary to develop more policy initiatives that consider regional social and environmental conditions in order to improve the situation of water supply coverage.
