Abstract
Although many meat inspection centers provide abattoir condemnation data to each producer, few studies relating to statistical processes on abattoir data have been reported. Time series analysis is widely used in a range of biomedicine, including public health, and can be used to detect outbreaks of disease and to determine the effect of drugs based on significant changes in the condemnation rate. In this study, we carried out investigations to obtain favorable conditions for utilizing the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model for the analysis of the condemnation rates. The degree of fit between the condemnation rates and the models estimated using the SARIMA model and those estimated using the exponential smoothing method as a control were compared for 4 diseases of swine from 10 producers. The deviances for 39 out of 40 models were smaller than the control, and statistical significance was shown for 27 out of 40 models. In conclusion, this method can provide an index for determining the sanitation of farms for producers, and can be utilized as a tool to promote hygienic meat production.
