2009 年 65 巻 1 号 p. 1261-1265
In order to develop a high-resolution, high-efficiency typhoon intensity forecasting model for coastal disaster prevention, several kinds of idealized experiments of a decaying typhoon are performed in this study using a mesoscale meteorological model PSU/NCAR MM5 with changing the parameters of typhoon environment. The developed typhoon intensity forecasting model shows considerable errors under the typhoon's decaying stage. A number of sensitivity experiments by using MM5 suggest that the vertical wind shear and land surface roughness length in typhoon environment strongly influence the typhoon intensity during the decaying stage, and these processes should be parameterized appropriately in the typhoon intensity forecasting model to provide better forecasts.