抄録
The scarcity of tropical cyclone data causes the difficulty of external force estimation for coastal structures. The Stochastic Tropical cyclone Model (STM) is a useful method for overcoming this problem. We developed a global STM based on IBTrACS dataset and validated the model performance for statistics of tropical cyclone data. After that, the future change estimated from 8 different General Circulation Model projections under global warming scenarios was implemented in the STM. By using the STM, we estimated the future cyclone number and magnitude quantitatively.
