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抄録

This article introduced examples of the development of multiple scenarios on resource cycling and waste management. Various factors discussed in the course of these scenario development were examined, particularly factors that can strongly affect future resource cycling and waste management. Then the relations among these factors and LCA were described. Examples of the development of multiple scenarios on resource cycling and waste management include the development of ‘reference scenarios’ showing potential changes in the socio-economic environment in the future, the development of ‘policy scenarios’ showing potential policies according to ‘visions’ as objective conditions, and the development of both as packages. These scenarios should be developed according to their respective purposes. However, ‘reference scenarios’ are necessary for the development of ‘policy scenarios’. Based on these examples, the following factors are inferred as important for future resource cycling and waste management: changes in ‘industries’, ‘trade schemes’, ‘legal schemes and regulations’, ‘local government finances and systems’, ‘resource prices’, and ‘technology’. These factors should be considered when establishing a system of analytical subjects and developing scenarios in LCA. Causal relations among various factors that are used for the development of reference and policy scenarios are also very useful when conducting consequential LCA.