Towards Carbon Neutrality in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Incineration

—Scenarios surrounding MSW Incineration Plants from 2030 to 2050—

Abstract

This article explores strategies to reduce CO₂ emissions from municipal solid waste （MSW） incineration plants in order to achieve carbon neutrality in MSW incineration by 2050. Using 2013 as the baseline year, reduction targets were established for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Several reduction scenarios, including high-efficiency power generation, heat supply, and CO₂ capture, were then evaluated in a comparative analysis. The findings indicate that improving power generation efficiency and reducing electricity consumption alone are insufficient to meet the targets of carbon neutrality, which emphasizes the need for large-scale heat supply and CO₂ capture facilities. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis of factors such as CO₂ emission coefficients in the energy sector and the ratio of biomass plastics revealed the impact of these external factors on the effectiveness of CO₂ reduction measures.