世論調査と政治過程

―調査方法の変化との関係を中心に―

抄録

This paper provides a long overdue update on changes in the ways major news organizations conduct and report on public opinion polls. Scholars argue that cabinet approval ratings are far more politically significant than in the past as a consequence of the electoral and administrative reforms in the 1990s. It is now a widely shared premise that public opinion polling results exercise a large influence on the behavior of public officials and legislators. However, while many pollsters and academics debate the role of public opinion polling in public affairs, very few substantiate their claims with basic facts such as the number of opinion polls conducted by major news agencies and how reporting on polls has changed over time. Compiling data from news stories on polling from Asahi Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun, I argue that changes in polling practices and reporting are partly responsible for the increasing influence of public opinion polling on government.