韓国とタイにおける二つの金融危機と政治変動

―内生的危機と外生的危機―

抄録

This article explores the causal relation between crisis and political change through a case study on the two financial crises in South Korea (Korea) and Thailand: the Asian financial crisis in 1997 (AFC) and the global financial crisis in 2008 (GFC). In the AFC, the two countries suffered great losses and political change was brought in their respective government-business relations. However, when the GFC or the Lehman shock hit their financial markets in 2008, its impact was quite different from the AFC. Almost no crisis happened in the two countries. We address this contrasting result, focusing on how the crisis affects the political change, and vice versa. This paper argues that political change in the government-business relations, or financial liberalization, in 1980s-1990s was inconsistent with institutional legacies that had persisted from the pre-liberalization period, thereby driving the two countries to the AFC. Subsequently, because of this endogeneity of the AFC, the Korean and Thai governments tackled the financial restructuring and changed their relation with business. In contrast, as the GFC was an exogenous crisis for both countries and their economies became more resilient after the financial restructuring, they could avoid the impact of the GFC.