戦後日本農業成長の計量的分析

農業所得成長の収束についての検証

抄録

　The purpose of this research is an econometric analysis of Japanese agriculture in the postwar period. The convergence problem in economic growth theory is also investigated for agricultural growth in Japan. The results are as follows: First, neither of the variance coefficients of agricultural value added or farm income decreased; therefore, we could not see a σ convergence. Second, we extended the Barro & Sala-i-Martin model and checked if there was a β convergence; however, we could not observe a β convergence. We did obtain a conditional β convergence if we included the capital labor ratio, the ratio of agricultural budget, the degree of agricultural dependency, and regional and trade liberalization dummy variables. This means that a region with a low-level agricultural income grows faster than that of one with high income. Third, we also extended the Mankiw, Romer & Weil model but could not get a good result. Therefore, we included almost the same variables as the above Barro & Sala-i-Martin case. Then, we obtained a plausible result which shows that the growth rate of agricultural labor productivity increases 0.0029% and 0.0154%, respectively, if the agricultural budget and agricultural dependency each increase 1%. Also, the trade liberalization of oranges and beef damaged many prefectures. Fourth, the factor shares of land, physical capital, human capital and labor are 7.53, 33.01, 27.37 and 32.09%, respectively. Therefore, the labor share, which includes both labor and human capital, is 59.46%, and the capital share, which includes both physical capital and land, is 40.54%. These are reasonable results.