抄録
The subject of this paper is to estimate consumers' welfare loss when the BSE testing age criterion for cattle is revised from all months to older than 21 months, by analyzing the change in meat demand due to this revision. However this analysis is different from ordinary revealed preference methods in that the demand data after this policy change are stated, while the data before this change are revealed as usual. This is because this paper focuses on a policy change which is not substantially executed yet. To collect such a data set, I conducted a survey for 206 homemaker monitors for a month, where each household's current purchase quantity and purchase amount of Japanese beef, American beef, Australian beef, pork and chicken was recorded. After this survey, an additional questionnaire survey was also carried out,where I questioned the monitors on their purchase quantity of each commodity under the hypothetical situation that the revision of the BSE testing age criterion has been executed. At this question, I provided each monitor with her own purchase quantity in the previous survey period as a reference point in order not to largely lose the reliability of the stated data. Using this demand data whose aggregation level is household, I estimated the generalized corner solu-tion model of Phaneuf et al. (2000) for an incomplete demand system model. When I simulated each monitor's welfare loss based on the model estimation result, the expected compensating variation per household per month was 214 yen at the sample mean and 55 yen at the sample median.
