新興国等の食料需給動向と日本農業の針路

抄録

Recent price hikes in the world food market have renewed the food security concerns of many Japanese who had long been anxious about the country's falling food self-sufficiency rates and the declining domestic agricultural sector. This paper first reviews recent turmoil in the world food market and shows that neither rising food demand in Asian emerging countries nor low levels of world food stocks were the main cause, but the biofuel policies undertaken by the EU and the US, coupled with the oil boom, have had the most significant impact on world food prices. Then by examining the food situation and policies in China, India and ASEAN countries the paper argues that they will not threaten world food security because their demand for grains will not rise as has been expected due to declining staple food consumption and a slow growth in meat demand. It is suggested that in light of rising income they would rather offer huge markets for high value farm products. Japanese agriculture, which has been suffering from the small size of farms and a rapidly aging farm labor force, should not time in capturing the opportunities that these new-rich neighbors can present. The exports of safe and quality products as well as agro-tourism will be most promising areas.