An Analytical Approach to the “Self-Fulfilling Prophecy”

抄録

     The purpose of this paper is to formalize Merton's famous idea of the self-fulfilling prophecy. First, we will check the insufficient points in his discussion, and clarify the vicious circles which are characteristic of the self-fulfilling prophecies. Then we will construct a mathematical model to specify the mechanism of the self-fulfilling prophecy. From this formal analysis we can suggest five different situations under which a prophecy leads to its own fulfillment in the case of racial conflict. In particular, we can point to the possibility that even if “the feelings of whites toward Negroes are favorable” and “Negroes respect the traditions of trade unionism,” the prophecy may successfully lead to its own fulfillment. We cannot understand clearly the mechanism of the self-fulfilling prophecy, until we undertake such a formalization thoroughly and completely and surpass the Mertonian “theory of middle range.”