オイルとカーの経済構造 : 衰退と拡散(グローバル経済の地殻変動をどうとらえるか,経済理論学会第61回大会共通論題)

抄録

The global money flow pumped by the USA has decreased particularly in the form of more speculative portfolio investments, etc., but foreign direct investments in emerging countries have remained at a high level. On top of high labor costs in the developed world, technological advances in NC machine tools and digital information network, etc., will continue the globalization of production and enterprises' activities. Employment and income has increased along with the progress of industrialization, which has expanded the domestic markets including consumer durables in the export-oriented emerging countries such as China and ASEAN countries. Economic development of these countries has expanded the demand for natural resources which has increased the export of resource-producing emerging countries such as Brazil and Russia. The price surges due to inflow of global money to energy and minerals markets have also expanded the export earnings of these countries which increased their domestic markets. These countries' domestic market expansion also depend more on global money in the form of portfolio investments than the export-oriented emerging countries. Increasing domestic market and global corporations' expanded division of labor have enabled emerging countries to produce automobiles, the most expensive durables. Economic structures based on the mass-produced durables (ESBMPD) have flowed into Emerging countries. The 4 trillion yuan domestic demand stimulus plan implemented by China after the Lehman shock made market participants feel expectations for emerging countries to lead the world which caused the second inflow of global money into emerging countries and energy and minerals markets. But even China could not continue large scale government spending for long while the developed world remained in stagnation. Global money has been nervous since China reduced spending which has affected more on those countries depending on speculative money. Although some may fall into "Middle Income Trap", Economic structures based on the mass-produced durables (ESBMPD) will continue to flow into Emerging countries.