世界経済の構造転換と新興経済(グローバル経済の地殻変動をどうとらえるか,経済理論学会第61回大会共通論題)

抄録

Entering this century, the structure of the world economy is undergoing large shifts. Ten years after the Asian Currency Crisis occurred in 1997, another global financial crisis with the US as epicenter erupted and spread to the world in 2008. The Sub Prime Loan Crisis, which was triggered by America's Lehman Brothers bankruptcy spread to Europe and then Japan, through various channels. Moreover, the crises become more severe than that in the US epicenter. Needless to say, the crisis has also hit East Asia, which has become the world's manufacturing base. Despite the severe prospects of the emerging economies after the crisis, the influence of the emerging economies in the world economy has grown stronger. The biggest change is the shifting to a new structure of the development structure from one that is based on advanced economies for half a century. Indeed, it has not been a linear phenomenon. Owing to this, the assessment of the emerging economies has been fluidly vacillating. While going through a zigzag route, passing through some epoch phases, slowly but steadily there seems to be a change towards a new structure. This can be seen in sharp relief when looking at the changes in the global economy for the past ten years, including the current world financial crisis, from the analytical perspective based on the development of the East Asian economy. In this paper, in section[1] we will first of all consider the movements of the advanced and emerging economies after the 1980s, and confirm the large changes in the relationships between these two sets of economies. In section[2], we will consider the development mechanism of the emerging economies, which has become the main character in bringing about this structural shift. The dramatic development of the emerging economies after the Second World War started out with the NIES type of development, but we will confirm that this is changing to a new development mechanism at the turn of the century. In section[3], we will consider the East Asia's self-reliance accompanying this structural change, and the new regional issues that arises therefrom. Finally, in section[4], we will discuss the effects on the East Asian emerging economies of the various policies adopted by the advanced countries under the current global depression. Incidentally, in this report, we will call as PoBMEs (Potentially Bigger Market Economies) the emerging economies mainly responsible for triggering the change. We think that this way we can clarify the development mechanism of emerging economies in the world economy at the start of the 21st century, and bring to the fore the features of today's capitalism.