抄録
Vietnam seems play good performance on economic development in the last three decades, and be ranked as lower middle income economy from the end of 2010. Undoubtedly, under a series of deregulation and economic liberalization policies since early of 1990s both of foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private capital enterprises (PVEs) have contributed largely to the development of the economy. However along with such the positive eff ects, the current social economic development policies of Vietnam revealed some negative effects on the long term economic growth of the country. Some recent works, such as ADB (2011), Ono (2011) etc, warned Vietnamese economy hidden some structural causes that may push it fall into a middle income trap (in which the income can not be improved to higher level) in the near future. The diminishing of GDP growth rate of Vietnam in the last two three years (from 7-8% down to 5-6%) may be the factual evidence of such warning. This paper focused on the fundamental causes of these structural problems of current Vietnamese economy, not by a pure economics sense but from a political economic approach by analysing the changes of economic development strategy of the government, based on the two basic concepts of state capitalism and crony capitalism. The hypothesis here is that, Vietnamese goverment (state) tried to introduce market mechanism as a tool for governing the economy, until middle of the first decade of 2000s, by its own way with the emphasis of the role of state capital, so-called state capitalism. However the strategy using government's power in order to rule over the economy, via state owned enterprise system (SOEs), has not run as well as expected. After WTO accession (from the end of 2006), the change of economic policies with further market liberalization under the rules of WTO has positive eff ects on development of FDI and PVEs sectors, in the sense of stimulation for profit seeking activities. But the mix of SOEs protection policies under the rules of dictatorial political system, and the new wave of market liberalization has created favourite conditions for rent seeking activities, which nourish reproduction of crony capitalism. As a result, this causes the structural problems for long term economic development of the country. The rest of the paper tried to verify the above hypothesis by examination of economic policies on the development of SOEs, PVEs and FDI via three periods, i) 1986-1999 - known as the first Doi Moi (economic innovation), ii) 2000-2006 - the second Doi moi, and iii) 2007-2014 - after accession of WTO, be called as the third Doi moi. The end of paper emphasised that, further progress on innovation of political economic system is indispensable for the long term social economic development of the country, but the more important issue is how to make the economy to be governed by "the rule of law" spirit.
