Quantity and Price Indicator for Technical Analysis in the Stock Market

抄録

The two things equity investors are most concerned with are: 1) stock picking - finding a good investment target, and 2) timing of purchase and sale. That said, these two things will be the main theme of this research. Although common technical indicators are being widely used by investors to determine time to enter market, these techniques have been used by too many, obtaining these information have been made relatively easy, thus making these references less valuable. In addition, past technical indicators did not take into consideration the relationship between stock prices and trading volume. Many researches have shown that using a single variable as the basis of investment is insufficient and unwise. In view of the above, this research will propose a new technical indicator that takes into consideration both stock price and trading volume at the same time, thus making it superior in terms of investment timing. This research involves seven scenarios of the price- volume relationship, converts the daily transaction data of individual stocks into daily scores, then takes the scores and transforms those into short-term, as well as long-term moving averages. The crossing of the two averages will be used to predict the trend of the stock prices in the future, thus indicating the timing of investments. For example, when short-term moving average line breaks above the long-term moving average, it indicates a buy; when short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, it indicates a sell. Based on the empirical test results, the performance of the strategy discussed in this research was comparable with historical records, but involves less transactions while being easy to use. We can conclude from this that the new technique can provide investors a more valuable market reference.