Abstract
Early traffic warning systems against heavy rainfall carry out traffic regulations before disasters occur in order to reduce risks of slope disasters caused by heavy rainfall. The objective of-the system is prevention of the losses of life and injury caused by the disaster. It has the disadvantage, however, that drivers cannot pass the route, appearing when the slope disaster does not occur under the traffic regulation.
In this proposal, we investigate the social economic losses when a slope collapses or early traffic warning systems are carried out, considering the probability of failure of slope. More specifically, social economic losses are classified into direct losses and indirect losses. The direct loss is related to cost of slope restoration and compensation for damages to vehicles, passengers and private properties. On the other hand, the indirect loss is related to losses to road users due to diversions during interruption of road service caused by slope failures or the traffic regulation by the early traffic warning system. Furthermore, we utilize Tank Model in order to consider the ground water level change to calculate a probability of slope failures by a difference of rainfall patterns and continuities.
While the conventional early traffic warning system is based on the historical records of slope disasters, the system which we propose is based on the social economic losses. Regarding accumulated rain as a criterion for traffic regulations against heavy rainfall, we propose the method for establishment of the early traffic warning system focuses on socio-economic view points.
