地球温暖化にともなう日本の主な気候区における一雨降水特性の変化量評価

抄録

Thoeb jective of this study is to evaluate the effects of the global warming onrainfall characteristics. A time series models taking account of monthly temperature ofprecipitation characteristics;the number of occurrences and precipitation amount of a storm cluster. The proposed models consist of trend, periodic and jump components due to the movement of observatories and population regarded as an index of local urbanization.A global warming scenario for future 30 years from 2026 to 2055 was given by a time series model of monthly temperature developed by authors.The prediction of monthly precipitation for future 30 years was given by the proposed models based on the global warming scenario in 11 sites in Japan and compared with monthly precipitation from 1966 to 1995.The decrease from December to March all over Japan, the decrease in April and May mainly in eastern Japan, the increase in June and July mainly in western Japan were found respectively.But no apparent change could be found from August to November.