According to the most recent report by IPCC, the increasing trend of greenhouse gases (GHGs) continues and simulation suggests that the estimated temperature rise in 2100 will be about 2°C. Simulation based on general circulation model assuming the future scenarios suggests that CO2 emission must be reduced significantly to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 even at higher level than the current value. The problems of loss of land by sea level rise, reduction in crop production and water resource shortage due to the climate change will be serious more in the developing countries rather than the developed countries.

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Global environmental issues, global warming in particular, draw people's attention today. This is because the COP3 meeting of the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change is planed to be held in Kyoto on December, 1997. Since civil engineering is expected to play an important role to prevent global warming, and to mitigate its impacts, the standpoints of the civil engineering and the present activities of JSCE are reviewed. The tasks of JSCE is also examined toward struggling against global warming and climate change.

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Study has been conducted on environmental management systems by the research sub-committee which was organized in 1994 under the Committee on Global Environment, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, to study environmental management systems (EMS). Objectives of the study include providing interpretation of the ISO 14000s and proposing a guideline to introduce and apply the EMS to the construction industry, which will help the industry reduce adverse impacts on the environment and achieve sustainable development. This paper presents an overview of studies conducted by the research sub-committee for the past three years.

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This paper is the work report of LCA subcommittee in Japan Society of Civil Engineers. The object is to brief on the calculating as a test of LCA for civil engineering structure (roads, dams, Mnnels, bridges, clean water and sewage systems), and to estimate application possibility of LCA as a design tool from application instance to practical design to bridge

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By how much and over what time-frame, should anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases be reduced to avert global climate change? Research to answer this question has been stronglypromoted within framework of Berlin Mandate. In recent year, two main, but rather different, approaches have been taken. They are:“Optimum Emission Trajectory” and the “Safe Emission Corridor”. From the view point of “Safe Emission Corridor”, this paper concludes the necessity of implementing major emission reduction policies before 2010. Also it strongly supports existing targets for developed countries to stabilize their emissions by the year 2000, make furtherreduction by 2010, and cooperate with developing countries to reduce their total emission thereafter.

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This paper is to report study results on a research theme, “Synthetic Evaluation Method of Civil Construction Projects”, implemented by the 5th Sub-committee members under the Construction Consulting Engineers Committee, Japan Society of Civil Engineers. We, construction consulting engineers, are engaged in planning, studying, designing, construction, maintenance and management of civil construction projects. Considering these roles of construction consulting engineers, the 5th Sub-committee has had a thought thatsynthetic evaluation of projects from environmental point of view is necessary in order to formulate civil construction projects in harmony with global environment. And economic evaluation of environmental value and impacts for comparison with usual socio-economic effects is one method to significantly contribute to the synthetic evaluation.
The sub-committee aims at proposing some practical framework for synthetic evaluation of civil construction projects, under the above theme and background. Out of the study outputs, results of the following activities are mentioned in this paper Examination on economic evaluation methods, Review and analysis on evaluation case studies, and Identification of practical problems for evaluation.
Based on the study results as reported herewith, the sub-committee members willcontinue to carry out further study.

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A bridge is necessary to be environmental friendly and economic over its life.Suitable bridge type needs to be selected considering various criteria before construction.A bridge type selection system has been prepared considering environmental impact as one of selection criteria in addition to cost, driving comfort, and landscape.This paper illustrates the proportion of environmental impact of superstructure and substructure of various types of bridges with different span obtained from the system.This will be helpful in deciding the type of superstructure and substructure of new bridges.This system is planned to be supplemented by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to make it more interactive with decision makers.The decision system is thought to be helpful to select appropriate bridge type incorporating knowledge-base and expert judgment.

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Local Governments have been playing an important role in pollution control since 1960s. heir experiences and technologies are being required for international cooperation in this field, since Japan has prioritized the environment ODA from other cooperation.Around 80 persons are being dispatched every year for Japan's environmental technical cooperation, and twenty percent of them are the staff of local governments.International cooperation between local governments become recently active. Many of the cooperation are with Chinese local governments.However, staff of some conservative governments are facing difficulty of convincing the heads of the body to launch cooperation under their own initiative, partly because the Local Government Law does not stipulate international cooperation as an affair of the local Governments.Encouragement of the central government and establishment of fora to exchange information is needed to facilitate the cooperation.

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The global environmental issues are caused by the increasing demand for energy due to the growth of the world economy. Developmennt of alternative energy sources can make a substantial contribution to reduce excessive dependence on fossil fuel through energy conservation. Hydropower is the most feasible source as a nenewable energy and there remains about 80% of expploitable capability in the world. It is hoped that our country play an important role in many aspects of energy policies, technologies and international cooperation

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Urban heat island problem is actualized in many cities, and tends to rise a peak of energy demand in the summer daytime. We investigate the new city concept with environmental symbiosis and energy conservation, and a new city model is analyzed from various standpoints. In this study, we remark two effective countermeasures for urban thermal environment, that is, (1) arrangement the city formation to make the most of sea breeze, (2) urban green planting and energy conservation in the city. We estimate these effects on typical summer by 3-D numerical model for heat island simulation which calculate the distribution of velocity, air temperature, and humidity. The effect of each countermeasures is evaluated from the results, and spatial differences of effects in the city is made clear.

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Long range transport/transformation/deposition of various trace chemical species has been simulated over east- and southeast-Asia and the west Pacific ocean during February and March, 1994. Emission sources considered in the simulation include natural sources of NO_x due to lightning, soil micro-biological activity and biomass-burning, and of SO_x from volcano as well as anthropogenic sources of NO_x, SO_x and hydrocarbons; the anthropogenic NO_x sources also include aircraft emissions. Comparison of calculated concentrations with PEM-West-B (Pacific Exploratory Mission-West, Phase B) campaign data showed good agreement for O_s, SO₂ and hydrocarbons such as C₂H₄, C₂H₆ and C₃H₈, and acceptable for NO_x, HNO₃ and PAN. Furthermore, dry and wet depositions of both S and N compounds were calculated and the results are evaluated by comparing with observation in Japan area. Sensitivity analysis of deposition to the scavenging coefficients and source strength is presented. Relative contribution of emission sources in East Asia to the acidic deposition over Japan are also estimated.

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We measured SO₂ and NO₂ gas concentrations by using passive samplers in Siberian urban area (Norilsk, Yakutsk, Khabarovsk, Neryunguri). In Norilsk, SO₂ gas concentrations were more than ten times higher than that in Sapporo. In other cities, however, SO₂ and NO₂ gas concentrations were the same or less than that in Sapporo. Continuous measurement of gas and aerosols in Norilsk showed that extremely high concentrated SO₂ gas and sulfate damage forests around Norilsk, and may affect human health. In Yakutsk, Atmospheric aerosols contained much carbonaceous components. In Tiksi, the Arctic haze occurred in winter and spring, which was caused by long range transport of pollutants emitted from Norilsk or west Siberia. The deposition of pollutants as heavy metals may cause the accumulation in the surface of the Siberian Permafrost layer.

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In recent decades, increasing quantities of pollutants have been transported from Asian countries to the Pacific ocean and the Arctic area and cause a acid rain or acid snow over these area. The mechanism of long-range transport of chemical species must be made clear to understand how these pollutants affect eco-system and environment.In these mechanism, cumulus convection should be very important, because it generate strong vertical air movement.
In this study, the realistic meteorological field over Japan and the northern Pacific ocean in winter season has been simulated by using PSU/NCAR MM5 (mesoscale model). At first, some physical options on MM5 has been tested to make sure that how these selection affect the vertical transport.After that, amount of vertical transfer was estimated in this case

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A one-dimensional photochemical model of the troposphere has been developed to estimate stratospheric contribution to the tropospheric ozone concentrations. The diffusion module has been changed so that we can distinguish ozone formed by the photochemical reactions from that transported from the stratosphere. Calculations of the tropospheric chemistry indicate that the diffusion module can compute tropospheric profiles of trace constituents from different sources adequately. However, the model can not reproduce summer maximum in the middle troposphere. Also, it tends to underestimate ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere. These model deficiencies are caused by the limitations of one-dimensional treatment. The resulting estimates indicate that stratospheric inputs can account for a maximum of ca. 10 % of the ozone at surface, ca. 50% at the middle troposphere in late winter and spring and for less during the rest of the year. An uncertainty study indicate that the results are highly depend upon the stratospheric flux and not so upon the NO formation rate by lightning.

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In order to evaluate the acidification of rain drops due to washout of nitrogen oxide, a simple non-steady mathematical model has been built, taking account of (1) the drop-phase chemical reactions; and (2) the pollutant mass transfer between rain drops and the atmosphere. With use of this mthematical model the acidification process of rain drops due to the nitragen oxides as NO (g), NO2 (g), and NO3 (g) are simulated numerically. The pH values on the ground obtained by the simulations disclose that (1) the contribution of the nitrogen oxide as NO (g) and NO2 (g) to the rain drop acidity is very small compared with that of SO2 (g);(2) the co-washout of NO3 (g) and H2O2 (g) may considerably raise the acidity (i.e., lower pH value) of small rain drops; and (3) The pH value does not show boundless decrease but is supposed to have the equilibrium value depending on the H2O2 (g) concentration, even if the NO3 (g) concentration contimue to increase in its value.

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The processes of sulfur dioxide dissolution into cloud droplets and its successive oxidation to sulfate were studied in a real scale cloud facility prepared in a vertical shaft of a mine. Sulfur compounds in droplets, aerosols and gas were collected by serial samplers, a droplet impactor, a teflon filter for aerosol particles and a Na2CO3-impregnated filters for SO2 gas. Samplers are installed at several height including the bottom, a level below the cloud base, and levels in the cloud. Sampling by an autosampler loaded on an elevator which goes up and down in the vertical shaft was also carried out. The concentrations of sulfur compounds at each height indicates that the released SO2 at the bottom of the shaft was absorbed by cloud droplets but the oxidation rate of sulfite to sulfate was slow. It may be due to the absence of light in the shaft which produces oxidation reagents such as ozone and so on.

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Tuvalu, with its limited land area, low elevation and high population density, is the most vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise in the South Pacific island countries. The main purposes of this study are to recognize the vulnerability of physical and socio-economic aspects in Tuvalu through literature and field survey, and to assess the vulnerability to sea-level rise in Funafuti Atoll, using a coastal engineering approach. As the results of the study, it is concluded that the vulnerability would consist mainly of physical condition, industrial and economic vulnerability, the discrepancy between traditional culture and modernization, and that Funafuti would be affected fatally by estimated inundation/flooding and wave overtopping. At the present stage, there are no appropriate countermeasure to alleviate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in Tuvalu.

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In heavy oil disaster by Russian's tanker, the real condition of environment contamination in Japanese seashore-line is introduced. Also, based on the result of chemical microanalysis, some discussions are performed about the states of oil contaminations in sea water, beach sands and chemical compositions of pollutants extracted from C-heavy oil.

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Transport of nitrous oxide and treated waste water was investigated in an estuary receiving treated waste water. Seasonal change of water quality were also observed to assure origins of N₂O and to estimate the influence of treated waste water on N₂O production in the survey area. Based on nitrous oxide concentration profiles in the survey area, discharged treated waste water were traced, which flowed upstream at the flood tide and downstream at the ebb tide with concentration maxima. It is assumed that nitrous oxide discharged from treated waste water is transported to the survey area with partial and vertical mixture. To determine the production of N₂O in survey area, flux at each sampling sites were calculated and 25% of the produced N₂O was originated from treated waste water in result. The remaing percentage of the production, and also assumed to be the discharge from the sediment layers.

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The results of research on marine contamination in the regional areas (Kara Sea, Barents Sea) in the Arctic Ocean were reported at the 3rd and 4th Symposia on Global Environment. In the present research, the authors carried out flow analysis in the whole region of the Arctic Ocean and concentration analysis of radioactive materials based on the release scenario, made comparative studies of flow and concentration analyses in the regional areas, and examined the consistency of the results obtained by both models and the characteristics of diminution in material concentration in the Arctic Seas.

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The Tomanko Development Project, of which is planned for the triangle mne which is connected by China, Russia and North Korea in north west of the Japan sea, will start soon. According to the project, the population is supported to ten million people within the region. As a result of the increase in population, pollution (in various form) will be thought go up. The rate of outflow of pollution from the above region, is currently almost of same level as that experienced within Osaka bay. But, the magnitude of pollution can not be expressed only the population in this project region. The pollution connects both the Popu: ation and to an area of hinter-land of this region. those magnitudes are very large in comparison with that of the Baltic sea. Then it is necessary to establish the International oganization for protection of marrine environment.

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Most of the model estimation of the risk caused by the environmental contamination includes some uncertainty associated with the parameter uncertainty in the model. In this study, these uncertainty was analyzed by using the model for evaluating the human health risks caused by the long-term global low-level radioactive contamination with various uncertainty analysismethods: the sensitivity analysis, the percentile estimate, the robustness analysis and the fuzzy estimate. The model is mainly composed of five sub-models, which includes their own uncertainty; we also analyzed these uncertainty. The major findings obtained in this study include that the possibility of the predicted value by the model simulation being discrepant from the observed data is less than 10%; the Robustness Index of the predicted value is less before 1950 and after 1980; the Fuzziness of the predicted value is large in 1960-80; the uncertainty of the predicted value can be made lower by decreasing some of the uncertainty in the model; the reliability of the model can definitively depend on the following environmental factors: transfer from stratosphere down to troposphere, residual by food processing and cooking, direct foliar absorption and sedimentation in ocean.

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In order to identify a desirable structure of environmental planning in Asia and the Pacific region, a comparative study on regional environmental planing in Asia and the Pacific as well as European region was undertaken. Further, environmental plans at national level of Japan, China, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands were studied to examine the consistency with regional plan. At regional level, following elements are those which Europe includes but Asia and the Pacific is missing: 1) Programs for global issues, 2) Target, 3) legally binding agreements, 4) Environmental policy for economic sectors, and 5) Priority. These differences are caused by the differences between ESCAP and EC in terms of their legal status and component of member countries most of which in Asia and the Pacific are developing countries. The consistency between regional and national plan regarding target was also been studied in Europe which has numerical targets. Most of them at national level is consistent with regional level. In Asia and the Pacific, a new planning framework consists of comprehensive policy measures to cope with the challenges at regional level in harmony with environmental policy and programs at global and national levels is expected to be developed.

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In this paper, the optimization model, which has two objective functions not only economic utility by consumption but also environmental disutility derived from pollution, is constructed. From sensitivity analyses on the weight of environmental disutility in Japan after the year of 1970, the weight of disutility caused by SOx and NOx emission compared with that of economic utility is evaluated about 10^-3. Even if this result is applied to the carbon emission in the future, effective carbon reduction cannot be realized. In order to stabilize carbon emission to the level in 1990, the weight is needed ten times more than that of the SOx and NOx results. From the results in this model, the feasible field of the optimal paths evaluating the trade off between carbon reduction and economic growth can be presented.

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Under the assumption that the population problem, the food problem and global warming due to energy consumption can be stabilized through managing land use, impacts of human activities such as consumption of food, energy and timber on global environmental changes, and global population capacity are analyzed using a system dynamics model developed in this research. In the model the world is divided into two groups: OECD countries and the others. Used global land use data set is land cover map derived from satellite data, and potential distribution of arable land is estimated by the method of Cramer and Solomon which takes into consideration spatial distribution of climate data such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In addition, impacts of carbon dioxide emission from human activities on food production through global warming are included in the model as a feedback.
The results of the analysis for both BaU scenario and Toronto Conference scenario are similar to the results of existing models. Improving spatial resolution of the model by using global data on distribution of environmental variables and socioeconomic indices is left for further studies.

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The natural environment investigation are carried out on the source of Tone river and its basin which is called “the water reservoir of life” in Kanto district. At the beginning, the method of natural environmental investigation is simply represented. In this report, in particular, the authors clarify the ture character of source of Tone river. Moreover, based on the data of chemical analysis about water qualities of source zone of Tone river, Tone river and natural water in its basin are shown, and the real condition of water environment in the water system of Tone river is discussed.

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Developing the Mekong as an inland waterway, linking the six riparians, has identified as a necessity to boost the fast growing economies of the region. Sedimentation, associated with extreme deforestation of the basin has obvious negative impacts on the river ecosystem. Navigation development activities should be carried out with utmost care not to jeopardise other uses of basin's resources. The objective of this study is to focus attention on water management issues with particular emphasis on identifying environmental impacts associated with improvement of inland navigation in the Mekong.

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Development of the numerical system to reproduce runoff phenomena in a large river basin is important as tools not only to predict the disaster, but also to evaluate the complex system of water transport affected by the topography, geology, and vegetation in the basin. This study deals with the runoff by the typhoon 17, 1996 in the whole Abukuma River basin with the catchment area 5400 km². A runoff analysis model is developed by using the kinematic wave method and channel networks. The effect of the mesh size and the distribution of Manning' sroughness are examined by comparing the observed hydro-graph at about 30 observatories.

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Water resources planning consists of two parts; namely i) basic framework for site, scale and management and ii) final decision through basin simulation by matching with other political plans. In this paper, we are focusing on the basin simulation to grasp the run-off characteristics of both of water quality and quantity in time and space. The multilayer mesh typed run-off model is introduced by considering the land use situation and requested analysis scale. Water balance can be checked at arbitrary point in the basin or in the channel. The pollutant after rainfall comes out through the road and the drainage system, and then flows down along the channel depending on the run-off discharge and pollutant level.

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Thoeb jective of this study is to evaluate the effects of the global warming onrainfall characteristics. A time series models taking account of monthly temperature ofprecipitation characteristics;the number of occurrences and precipitation amount of a storm cluster. The proposed models consist of trend, periodic and jump components due to the movement of observatories and population regarded as an index of local urbanization.A global warming scenario for future 30 years from 2026 to 2055 was given by a time series model of monthly temperature developed by authors.The prediction of monthly precipitation for future 30 years was given by the proposed models based on the global warming scenario in 11 sites in Japan and compared with monthly precipitation from 1966 to 1995.The decrease from December to March all over Japan, the decrease in April and May mainly in eastern Japan, the increase in June and July mainly in western Japan were found respectively.But no apparent change could be found from August to November.

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Modern hydrology is composed of physically detailed and spatially distributed models. Since these models require quantitative, distributed and multitemporal observation data set, remote sensing has become indispensable for hydrology. Many remote sensing techniques have been developed for measurements and estimating of various ground surface characteristics and fluxes. In this paper, these techniques are reviewed from hydrological view point, and an example of water resource analysis is introduced.

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This research aims to offer the information for the decision making of the policy for the water quality improvement of Lake Kasumigaura.In Europeann ations, an environmentalt ax or charge is adopted in order to realize environmental policy. Though such a measure was not in our country, the calculation result in this paper offered one of material for the decision making of a necessary project to improve the water quality of Lake Kasumigaura. The examination result is brought together in items as follows. 1) Benefit by the water quality improvement was adopted for the purification cost in the filtration plant as a calculation standard of an environmental tax. It is thought that about 550, 000, 000 yen/year is an appropriatea mount of a tax. 2) This tax did not becomec lear proof though it was comparedw ith the investigation case by a past CVM method. 3) An environmental tax for each unit was calculated on trial according to each idea of “Polluterp ays principle” and “Principle of the beneficiaries bear”. 4) A environmentale ducation and a social system, etc. were examined and the proposal as an environmental policy was done.

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The impact of sea level rise on developing countries facing sea is a great concern. This paper proposes a macro-economic model consideringm igration and unemployment for analyzing the impact of sea level rise on developing countries. The model is based on Harris-Todaro's two sector (rural-urban) model. The sea level rise is expressed in the model as the decrease of the available land. The changes in the available land should be propagated into markets, migration and therefore utility level. By applying the concept of equivalent variation, the model can finely show the social net damage. The model has been applied in the case of Bangladesh. The damage due to the SLR is measured in monetary term and the benefit prevention project is also illustrated. Due to the 45cm (100cm) SLR about 2%(4%) of total GNP might be decreased. The growth rate of per capita GDP of Bangladesh is only 1.58%, so the loss of GNP due to the SLR will bring an alarmingeffect on the economy of Bangladesh.

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Climate impacts will be one of the important concerns in the Asia-Pacific regions.These regions will experience dynamic development in the next century.Even without climate change, rapid growth in the demographic and economic situations of these areas will cause drastic changes in the local and global environment. Climatic impacts will make the situation even more complex. In order to assess the impact on this dynamic Asia-Pacific region, we estimated several kinds of direct physical impacts based on the probable range of global temperature increase, and identified the impact response curves of the climate changes. In this paper, we describe the impact on water resources, crop production and spatial changes in natural ecosystems. Typical outcomes of the model calculations in the Asia-Pacific area are briefly summarized as follows:
1) Following global average temperature increase of 2°C, the median estimations of national average temperature increases ranged between 1.3-2.7°C in these regions. The precipitation changes ranged between +1-17%.The variance among estimations is large, and some estimate show more than a 3.5°C temperature increase. The changein runoff ranged between -8-67%.
2) Slight decrease in rice production is expected in most of the countries. The productivity of wheat will decrease significantly in Bangladesh, India and other tropical countries. The variance in productivity changes among estimations is large.The relation between the impact and global temperature change reveals no discernibly logical pattern by either crops or countries.

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The Agricultural-Pastoral Belt of Inner Mongolia of China, a very typical region with heavy agricultural issues, is selected as study area. Firstly, through a series of indices that reflect the agricultural disaster issues, the present conditions and spatial distribution regularity of disaster issues are analyzed. Then, using the index of product deviation rate, four regions with the same change process of agricultural disaster issues are detemined according to the method of fuzzy cluster analysis according to the method of fuzzy cluster analysis. At the same time, the laws of dynamic change and the regional differences of agricultural disaster issues are discussed. Finally, based on the principle of Fuzzy multi-factors integrated evaluation, an appraisal model of disaster risk assessment under many disasters is established in the scale of county and risk assessment based on the model is completed.

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relationship between environmental protection and the movement toward free trade has become an issue of conflict through growing international economic interdependence. Such interdependence has brought many benefits and global welfare from increased trade, but also has caused many severe environmental problems, not only at national levels, but also at international levels. The arguments between free trade and environmental protection are divided into the following six concerns which are (1) environmental regulations and business competitiveness, (2) economic development and natural resources, (3) environmental preferences and sovereignty, (4) the internalization of environmental values, (5) harmonization of environmental standards and (6) the effects of free trade on developing countries. GATT (the WTO) should take the initiative to solve the problems and conflicts between trade liberalization and environmental protection because by 1993, 108 countries had signed the GATT (the WTO).

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A comprehensive review was made for the possible impacts of global warming on the infrastructures and industries in Japan. One of the major impacts will occur on the coastal zones; sea-level rise induced by warming will exacerbate beach erosion, and increase the threats of the flooding in the low-lying areas. Changes in typhoons increase the threats considerably. Among the industrial sectors, tourism and manufacturing industries will be affected by the warming. Demand and supply of energy also face problems. However, such impacts have not been analyzed quantitatively yet beside those for the coastal systems. Since today's society are protected by multiple infrastructures, direct effects of global warming are hard to detect. If infrastructures are adversely affected, impacts spread over a wide area of the people's life.

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The summer of 1994 and 1995 in Japan were extremely hot and a lot of impact was observed in many fields of Japanese society. Such impact of extreme events will work as indicators to detect longer term changes and impact of global warming. In this paper, information and reports about the impact of hot summers were reviewed to find the characteristics of social impacts, especially in the fields of water resources, nature, agriculture, energy and health. More detailed quantitative research are required to assess future vulnerability and mitigation options for the impact of global warming.

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Climate change is likely to have mostly adverse direct and indirect impacts on human health. Direct health impacts are increase in mortality due to an increase in the intensity and duration of heat waves. The potential impact of temperature increase on human mortality in Japan is analyzed based on the temperature - mortality relationship and an estimated future population in 2050. It is concluded that:
1) assuming 3°C increase in 2050, the population at risk will be doubled compared to the current population. About 9% of such population at risk is due to warming, and the remaining is due to change in population structure.
2) global warming is likely to have favorable impact on mortality in cold and cool season as suggested in the IPCC Second Assessment report.
3) potential adverse impact in urban area will be significant in 2050 because of concentration of population.

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A main cause of environmental problems in China is the large emission of pollutants from energy and industrial sectors. Characteristics of pollution, however, differs among regions depending upon the industrial structure of respective regions.This study investigates the relationship between regional industria lstructure and environmental loading (i. e., emission of air and water pollutants and generation of solid wastes) in China based on economic and environmental data from 1980 to 1995. The coastal region including the provinces of Jiangsu, Shandong, and Guangdong is enjoying rapid economic growth based on industries with relatively small environmental loading such as machinery, electric appliances and electronic devices, textile, and chemical fibers. On the contrary, industrial development in other provinces are generally accomapanying the expansion of polluting industries such as steel, electric utility, etc.

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Questionnaire was prepared to collect experts views on the future economic development and environmental issues in China. It consisted of 47 questions, each accompanied by a relevant graph of selected indicators. Based on their professional knowledge and experience, respondents were asked to draw lines indicating their heuristic judgement and ideas about the most probable future path of the indicators. Replies were received from 58 experts, and major results of the survey is presented in this paper.

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Vigorous industrial relocation is taking place in Asia due to various factors such as labor costs, changes in the exchange rate, and expansion of market. Japanese manufacturing industries, in particular, largely shifted their production basis to other countries. This paper discusses the environmental implications of the increased presence of Japanese-affiliated firms in China which is the second largest recipient country of Japanese foreign investment next to the US. The number of foreign-affiliated firms gradually increased in China since the 1980s: in 1994, the share of foreign-affiliated firms in the industrial gross output value of China amounted to 13.6% while it was as large as 38% in the province of Guangdong. Foreign-affiliated firms usually adopt the same technology as they have used in their home countries, and it greatly contribute to the modernization of the industrial technology in the recipient country in terms of pollutants emission and primary resource consumption per production. It is estimated that the contribution of foreign-affiliated firms to the total energy consumption in China was about 2% while they contributed to reduce the energy intensity per production (energy consumptionper GDP) in China by 26.5% from 1982 to 1994. Their contributions were more remarkable in the province of Guangdong.

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