食料需要モデルを利用した黄河流域の農業用水消費に関する研究

抄録

Yellow River basin faces water shortage. Therefore, change of water use by replacing food supply may affect water supply and demand balance. Food production in the basin provides food demand inside and outside of the basin through the transportation. Firstly, this study estimated food supply under change of eating habits, which is based on supply and demand proportion of food balance of year 2000 in China. Secondary, additional water use amount by change of food supply was estimated. Demand elasticity in each food item such as grain, vegetable, edible oil, meat, eggs, fisheries product, sugar, was calculated by using the Almost Ideal Demand System. Also, food transportation amount based on food surplus and deficit was calculated by transportation model. As a result in the case of income increase wheat demand in the basin and pig meat demand in out-basin have impacts on basin water duty. And in case of cereal price decline wheat and maze demand in the in and out of basin have more impacts on the water duty.