NCARの大気・海洋結合モデルによる温暖化予測実験

抄録

Coupled atmospher-ocean climate models are the most powerful tools toassess future climate change. However, it is wellknown that the coupling of ocean and atmospher causes climate drift due to discrepancies in surface fluxes. To reduce climate drift in couple models, mostmodels make flux adjustment even though flux adjustment are relatively large. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed the Climate System Model (CSM) which is a coupled model with no surface flux corrections, and reported that there is virtually no trend in the surface temperature during the 300-year control run. In this paper, we conduct a 10-year control run and a 115-year transient run by using NCAR CSMthrough the collaboration research between Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) and NCAR. The transient experiment assumes a 1%/year compound increase in CO₂ which gives a doubling CO₂ after 70 years, and tripling after 110 years, respectively. Atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice changes in future climate are analyzed and discussed.