MTシステムによる不動産価格の予測(1)

－TS法を使った中古住宅の不動産価格の予測－

抄録

Real estate values are influenced by a complex set of factors, but when real estate is appraised, it is important to estimate the value accurately. In the appraisal of buildings and the sites on which they stand, in practice, the cost approach and the income capitalization approach are often taken; the sales comparison approach using actual sale prices is employed sparingly. Since it is possible to collect extensive sales data for secondhand housing, the TS method in the MT system was applied to the estimation of secondhand housing values. Niiza, a city near Tokyo, was selected for this study; thirty-three properties of average value and twenty-nine items were taken as the unit space, Fifteen (signal) properties were analyzed by the TS method, and accurate results were obtained. These results were compared with the results of the older MTS method and standard regression analysis. The MTS method gave inaccurate results. The accuracy of regression analysis was acceptable, but the number of usable factors was severely restricted, so in consideration of degree of influence on value, which is an important concern in actual appraisal, the TS method,which can deal with many factors, has the advantage.