抄録
In this study we focus on power generation replacement and CCS investment as a substitute for an aged coal-fired power plant under an emission trading system. In this analysis carbon price, gas price and free allocation are explicitly uncertain. Using a real options approach we evaluate the thresholds between “waiting” and “investment right now”. The results indicate that it requires substantially higher carbon price for early CCS diffusions. For example, in the case of middle-range gas price (around US$8/GJ), US$65/tCO2 is not sufficiency to invest CCS right now. In addition allocation uncertainty makes it more difficult to diffuse CCS in an early stage.
