リアルオプション研究
Online ISSN : 1884-1635
Print ISSN : 1881-5774
ISSN-L : 1881-5774
応用研究
リアルオプションを活用した医薬品開発プロジェクトのポートフォリオ設計フレームワーク
末次 浩詩本谷 高寛小久保 欣哉
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ジャーナル フリー

2013 年 6 巻 1 号 p. 17-29

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We devised a business portfolio design framework for pharmaceutical development projects. In general, pharmaceutical development projects have a high option value because there’s much technological uncertainty and development period is long. First of all, we built one project evaluation model using binomial lattice model to calculate the probability of NPV including abandonment option. Second, we built the business portfolio design model to evaluate the risk and required investment. We used the probability of NPV as input, and set the number of pipelines in each development phase as variables. We clarified the effect of scale that the more the number of pipelines in each phase, the less likely the probability of negative NPV would be. In the assumption we built about the virtual pharmaceutical development project, 15 pipelines are required to reduce the probability of negative NPV in phase III to 8%, which means that it’s required to invest 45 billion yen per year for phase III.

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© 2013 日本リアルオプション学会
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