Study on Economic and Power Generation Mix Impact by Early Phase Out of Nuclear and Coal Thermal Power Generation in Japan:

Analysis Using E3ME Macro-econometric Model

Abstract

This paper measures quantitative answers using a E3ME macro econometric model for the question “What kinds of impacts do early phasing-out of coal fired power and nuclear power plants on Japanese economy, power generation mix and CO₂ emissions in 2050?” Model simulation results show almost no negative impacts on the economy in either scenario, chiefly due to the assumed ongoing reduction in cost of renewable energy generation, as well as lack of burden on the economy in the event it replaces existing coal and nuclear power plants. Total estimated reduction in CO₂ emissions in 2050 associated with phasing out coal-fired power plants is 50％ compared to 2017. But this reduction falls far short of the level of Japanese 80％ GHG reduction target in 2050. This is believed to be caused by nuclear and coal fired power being replaced by LNG fired power rather than renewable energy.