現代ロシアにおける中間層の形成 : 資源依存型経済における経済成長と階層分化の動向(大会報告・共通論題:中間層とはだれか-先進国と新興国の比較-)

抄録

This paper investigates several aspects of the creation of the middle class and its characteristics in Russia, with a focus on the relation between the business cycle and socioeconomic stratification. The growth of the middle class has been significant politically in that both the rise of anti-government movements after December, 2011's mass demonstrations, and the decline in the administration' approval ratings, were spearheaded by members of the middle class. This political trend was reversed after Russia's annexation of Crimea in the spring of 2014, the main cause of the sharp rise in support for Putin's policy being the political climate in the middle class. From the vantage point of economics, it is important to note that the creation of a Russian middle class was accompanied by increases and changes in consumption, including the purchase of automobiles, the use of credit cards, and so on. These changes were enabled by the economic development that resulted from rising petroleum prices in the 2000s. Additionally, the Russian economy should be described as consumption-oriented, given the significant contribution of personal consumption to the Russian GDP. In this consumption-oriented economy, the particularly large volume of middle-class consumption offers an avenue for studying the future course of the Russian economy. Meanwhile, class consciousness, as indicated in a mass survey carried out by "Levada Center", Russia's major opinion poll institute, shows a positive correlation between the business cycle and people's assessments of their own households' material situation. Another survey, however, suggests that the business cycle that followed the 2008 crisis did not affect self-identification within the middle class. Lastly, Russia's political climate, especially among people of the middle-class, has changed since the annexation of Crimea, due to the nationalism born of accumulated distrust against Western policies regarding post-communist Central and Eastern Europe, including the multiple enlargements of NATO and the armed support for the independence of Kosovo Autonomous Province from Serbia. Whereas members of the middle class were once anti-government, they have now supporters of Putin's policy. In summary, the Russian middle class is a key factor for analyzing Russian society, in both the political and the economic spheres.