Study on the Forecast of Property Tax Revenue and the Effect of Urban Consolidating in Local Cities

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the revenue in the future from a past transition of the property tax revenue(PTR), and to examine the ideal way of an urban consolidating for the revenue securing in local cities. We analyze the change in the PTR of nine years until 2015 according to the district for four cities. As a result, we find that the housing lot area and the floor space of a wooden house increase remarkably in suburbs, and that the assessed value of land had greatly fallen in the whole area of city. Next, when we forecast the PTR in 2030 based on it, we clarify the tendency that revenue will keep falling in the future. When we induce the development with the timbered house in past nine years in the suburbs to the central area with non-timber building, we confirm the effect of suppressing the fall of the PTR.