Do threat incidents against children and women raise the risk of sex crimes?

Exploring leading indicators for future sex crimes against children and women

Abstract

In an effort to prevent sex crimes against children and women, Japanese national police and local municipalities are initiating various crime prevention measures focusing on "threat incidents". Although threat incidents are generally regarded as precursors to sex crimes, it has not been empirically determined whether threat incidents raise the risk of future sex crimes. Using the Knox method, this study examines the spatiotemporal relationship between threat incidents and sex crimes against children and women. The results are based on the analysis of 1,722 sex crimes and 12,064 threat incidents that occurred from 2014 to 2016 in Tokyo. A spatiotemporal relationship was found only between threat incidents and sex crimes committed against children. The degree to which the risk of a sex crime increased was dependent upon the type of threat incident. Based on these results, we discuss the possibility of threat incidents as the leading indicator of future sex crimes.