URBAN SIMULATION IN TERMS OF HOUSE STOCK AND HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION

TOKYO METROPOLITAN CASE

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the prospective number of households and house stock of Tokyo. First we paid our attention to the relation between the house stock and the household composition, and established scenarios of newly established houses according to existing households forecast. Second, we simulated the relations between the number of households and house stock by assuming the distribution of building life of houses. As a result, houses more than 30 square meters in particular remain in downtown area and supply of houses under 30 square meters are insufficient in Middle Tokyo, in the case that houses are established by the same amount as present. In addition, detached houses get older mainly in 23 wards and condominiums get older in downtown area, in the case that the quantity of newly established houses are coordinated so as to meet the population.