都市水害の被害想定に関する研究

抄録

This study focused on developing an urban flood damage estimation method. We researched existing estimation methods and aimed to develop them to make them more effective. We simulated floods of various scales in the Nakashima River basin and Neyagawa River basin and estimated the flood damage by using the existing and newly developed methods. With respect to human suffering, we estimated the number of victims that could perish in their homes by using the “Life-Sim model” published by the U.S. Army. Further, we estimated the number of people accidentally endangered during an evacuation by means of a new method based on a specific force. The results of the estimation showed that in the case of both basins, few people died in their homes, but many people who were evacuated were endangered by accident during evacuation. Thus, when considering human suffering, it is necessary to account for both people who die at home as well as people who die on their way to an evacuation site.